Recession Probability (RPA) Update – March 2014

Monday, March 31, 2014 | Leave a comment

Each month I calculate the strength of the US economy using a math based model I call RPA (Recession Probability Analytics). When the number rises above 50 it means the US economy is in the bottom 50% of all economic conditions relative to its history.

While far from perfect, the model has had an uncanny ability to correlate (negatively) with stock market returns. In other words, since I started publishing RPA the S&P 500 is only up about 17% (but very volatile); however, when RPA has signaled less than 50 (the “green light” so to speak), the S&P 500 has risen over 75% (and not too volatile at all).  I began publishing the model in November of 2007.

Here’s the full history of RPA from inception:

Month/YearRPAS&P 500S&P ReturnGrowth of $100,000 if exiting S&P 500 for month after RPA moves above 50
Oct-0754.31549.381.5%$101,482.23
Nov-0744.91481.14-4.4%$101,482.23
Dec-0765.61468.36-0.9%$100,606.60
Jan-0877.51378.55-6.1%$100,606.60
Feb-0883.41330.63-3.5%$100,606.60
Mar-0889.41322.7-0.6%$100,606.60
Apr-0892.41385.594.8%$100,606.60
May-0883.41400.381.1%$100,606.60
Jun-08761280-8.6%$100,606.60
Jul-0864.11267.38-1.0%$100,606.60
Aug-08601282.831.2%$100,606.60
Sep-0852.51166.36-9.1%$100,606.60
Oct-0864.5968.75-16.9%$100,606.60
Nov-0871.5896.24-7.5%$100,606.60
Dec-0886.4903.250.8%$100,606.60
Jan-0989.4825.88-8.6%$100,606.60
Feb-0974.5735.09-11.0%$100,606.60
Mar-0971.5797.878.5%$100,606.60
Apr-0967.1872.819.4%$100,606.60
May-0961.1919.145.3%$100,606.60
Jun-0956.6919.320.0%$100,606.60
Jul-0953.5987.487.4%$100,606.60
Aug-0952.61020.623.4%$100,606.60
Sep-0943.21057.083.6%$100,606.60
Oct-0939.71036.19-2.0%$98,618.41
Nov-0938.81095.635.7%$104,275.56
Dec-0940.11115.11.8%$106,128.59
Jan-1042.51073.87-3.7%$102,204.57
Feb-1044.71104.492.9%$105,118.80
Mar-1045.21169.435.9%$111,299.40
Apr-1042.21186.691.5%$112,942.11
May-1043.91089.41-8.2%$103,683.57
Jun-1041.31030.71-5.4%$98,096.86
Jul-1040.21101.66.9%$104,843.74
Aug-1040.11049.33-4.7%$99,869.00
Sep-1039.81141.28.8%$108,612.64
Oct-1039.71183.263.7%$112,615.66
Nov-1040.71180.55-0.2%$112,357.74
Dec-1039.31257.646.5%$119,694.70
Jan-1140.21286.122.3%$122,405.26
Feb-1134.51327.223.2%$126,316.92
Mar-1128.31325.83-0.1%$126,184.62
Apr-1132.81363.612.8%$129,780.30
May-1131.31345.2-1.4%$128,028.15
Jun-1134.31320.64-1.8%$125,690.67
Jul-1138.71292.28-2.1%$122,991.53
Aug-1146.21218.89-5.7%$116,006.71
Sep-1161.091131.32-7.1%$115,942.94
Oct-1167.051253.3010.8%$115,942.94
Nov-1159.61246.96-0.51%$115,942.94
Dec-1149.61257.600.85%$115,942.94
Jan-1243.211312.414.4%$121,044.43
Feb-1238.741365.684.1%$126,007.25
Mar-1232.781408.473.1%$129,913.48
Apr-1237.251397.91-0.7%$129,004.09
May-1241.721313.32-6.1%$121,199.34
Jun-1247.681362.163.71%$125,706.53
Jul-1252.151379.721.29%$127,327.05
Aug-1249.171406.580.00%$127,327.05
Sep-1252.151440.672.42%$130,412.96
Oct-1244.701412.160.00%$130,412.96
Nov-1247.681416.180.28%$130,784.21
Dec-1245.131426.190.71%$131,708.63
Jan-1346.191498.115.04%$138,350.44
Feb-1343.211514.683.32%$142,952.77
Mar-1337.251569.193.53%$147,997.41
Apr-1340.231597.571.81%$150,676.16
May-1332.781630.742.1%$153,804.62
Jun-1329.801606.28-1.5%$151,497.66
Jul-1329.801685.734.9%$158,991.05
Aug-1323.841632.97-3.1%$154,014.95
Sep-1326.821681.553.0%$158,635.40
Oct-1329.871756.544.5%$165,773.99
Nov-1329.811805.812.8%$170,415.66
Dec-1329.831848.362.4%$174,505.64
Jan-1431.291782.59-3.5%$168,296.23
Feb-1434.271859.454.31%$175,552.67
Mar-1434.271872.340.01%$176,769.63
Apr-1429.81883.950.62%$177,865.74
May-1428.311923.572.1%$181,600.92
Jun-1425.31960.231.9%$185,051.34
Jul-1422.351930.67-1.5%$182,275.57
Aug-1417.882003.373.77%$189,139.22
Sep-1420.861972.29-1.55%$186,204.94
Oct-1419.372018.052.32%$190,525.17
Nov-1416.392067.562.45%$195,199.43
Dec-1417.882058.90-0.42%$194,381.84
Jan-1514.901994.99-3.10%$188,348.06
Feb-1520.862105.505.49% $198,686.96
Mar-1520.862067.89-1.74% $195,230.58
Apr-1522.352085.510.85% $196,894.10
May-1517.882107.391.05% $198,959.79
Jun-1511.922063.11-2.10% $194,779.32
Jul-1511.92TBDTBDTBD

What RPA is Saying This Month

Financial markets have continued to be rather up and down so far in 2014, but the economy has stabilized (at least statistically). RPA is unchanged for the month of March coming in at 34.27.

For the worry warts that are predicting a major economic crash, you may want to hold your hats. Unemployment is still mixed, but housing starts are picking back up. A unusually harsh winter slowed economic activity, but now pent up demand is causing consumers to buy again. Spring, is in the air!

While there is always risk in financial markets, the US economy is still fairly sound. This could change in relatively short order though, so be sure to stay balanced and remember to check back next month for more statistical evidence on the the real risk of a coming recession.

As I’ve mentioned (many times) before, the stock market is still due for a correction. Stocks have gone up substantially the past year (and the last 5 years). A pullback from overbought conditions is perfectly normal and happens all the time. It’s just that from an economic perspective, a pullback would be just that, and not necessarily the sign of a full blown recession. Each pull back we’ve had over the last year has been modest, with most just 4% to 8%. I fully expect we’ll get a real pullback eventually, which would be more like 10% to 15%. It may happen soon, or may not happen for a few more months (or longer). Either way, stay tuned to blog updates for warning signs.

Since RPA is a math based, mechanical, non-emotional measurement of economic strength – the model is telling us now is a good time to be balanced as an investor.  Times could be better, but at least for the short term, there’s no reason to be especially cautious.  Times are pretty good at the moment, but good times don’t last forever – so be sure to keep on eye on this economic indicator next month.

Cheers,

Jason Wenk

In Investor Education Recession Probability RPA |

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